Nuclear Breeze

There is a story in Korea of a great admiral who sunk an armada of 300 Japanese ships, being in command of only a single ship. The story is designed to draw you in, with the story teller revealing to the listener he didn’t really do it with one ship - he used the natural cyclones of the Korean coast. He lured the enemy’s navy into the cyclones, and the entire armada was swallowed in. Admiral Yi, the subject of the story, had turned nature into his fleet. His sailors were wind and wave. He won with nature’s warriors.

A similar event appears to be, potentially, unfolding in Ukraine today. Between blowing up dams to blowing up nuclear reactors, it appears the Ukrainians have decided to draft nature to the frontlines of war, in an effort to fill the diminishing ranks. However, the question must be asked: will it work?

You should know the story of Chernobyl. If not, read the Wikipedia page. I won’t waste your time with the popsci. What’s worth noting in regards to the Ukraine War today is this: In total, only about 6 tons of nuclear material was released from the plant. Over 95% of the material remains in the now-closed nuclear reactors - some 200 tons of material in total. With just 5% of the material released, Eastern Europe got elevated cancer rates, abandoned cities, mutated animals, and dead forests.

Zaporizhzhia has 2,204 tons of material. That’s 10x the material, and likely 10x the potential to get released given the lack of emergency services in a war zone. This means that, on average, 10^20th power of Joules worth of energy could be released from a “total-destruction event” (TDE). That’s 100,000,000,000,000,000,000

For comparison, just one Tsar Bomb - the strongest nuclear bomb ever created, contains 10^17th Joules. That’s 245,000,000,000,000,000

In simple terms, a TDE of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant would be the equivalent of 1,000 Tsar Bombs being detonated.

For reference, it would only take 10 Tsar Bombs to wipe out most major metropolitan areas of the United States.

If you’ve been hearing about Zaporizhzhia on the news, and the exchange of blames as to who will attack it, this is the math behind the fears. You might feel a bit confused as to why Russia claims Ukraine will hit it, and Ukraine claims Russia will hit it. You might feel like both want to, and that may be rather confusing. This comes down to two key factors: weather, and wind. Regardless, understand this Dear Reader: Any attack on the plant will be the equivalent of a full-scale nuclear strike on the country the winds and weather blowing all that nuclear waste towards.

Wind

When Chernobyl blew up, radioactive gases reached an altitude of 2.5km-3km, leaching into jet streams and raining down hundreds of kilometers away. As of July 5th, when I am writing this, the direction of these higher currents is Northerly, with some westward drift:

The direction of the lower winds is mostly cyclonic in and around Crimea, meaning not much would get to Russia anyway. This is, naturally, awful conditions for trying to spread toxic gas onto the Russians - either the regions they occupy, or their nation. I suppose there is some Easterly drift at the north, but not enough to carry debris to Moscow in any significant degree.

On July 7th, and 6th, it is predicted that matter in the 2km height range and below could be swept into Moscow in part, but surface level wins will still be heading south towards Turkey:

Overall, if we look at the predicted weather patterns, there is no decent nor consistent eastern, nor western, motions for this week going forward. So regardless of who wants to do this, it doesn’t appear there will be much of a chance to get the wind in one’s favor. It will shove heavy materials towards Turkey, and lighter materials towards Belarus. You can dismiss any so-called leakers or grand claims at this moment claiming we have 36 hours left to live.

But there is another option.

Mud

While air currents is one way to use a TDE at Zaporizhzhia, it is not the only viable use of such an event. Rasputitsa, or in Ukrainian Bezdorizhzhia, is the season of muddy conditions that occurs in the Spring and Fall time storms. It became rather popular last year by the initial stalling of the invasion from mud. Many generations of military commanders have used the mud season to their advantage.

Whoever would want to blow up the Zaporizhzhia reactors may be waiting until the mud season rolls in too. Mud packs, and holds many horrible things. Radiation is one such item mud can hold. As heavy materials get packed into the mud, they become insulators for radioactive debris - silent killers waiting for some unfortunate soul to dig into them. You won’t even know you’ve hit the silent death until you’re sleeping in a trench and suddenly start coughing up blood - which at least one soldier sadly discovered during the initial invasion of Ukraine, dying shortly later.

Think of radioactive mud as a silent minefield. The heavy materials sink down and the soldiers atop the area simply are not aware they are walking over death waiting just a few inches below the surface. As the soldiers dig their trenches, they expose the preserved radioactive dust, and expose themselves to the terrible slow death of radiation sickness. Such a strategy would rely on a rainy season with mud, exposing materials all along the river bed and fields of Eastern Ukraine. The mud becomes a permeant death upon the land - no one would be able to use the land for centuries. Such an tactic would be the ultimate spiteful act: Permanently sever Eastern Ukraine from human habitation for centuries to come, and the war is effectively over in a draw, with no one able to hold the territory in their life times.

Likewise, if Russia wanted to partake in the ultimate vengeance, doing this would permanently leave western Ukraine uninhabitable for generations. Depending on how far west the radioactive mud would go, you might see areas of Romania and the Pontic coast fall to similar fates.

This would be a brilliant, but stupid, tactic. It is the ultimate way of saying “to hell with you”. You wouldn’t get much material rained down on Russia or western Ukraine, but you would unleash 1,000 Tsar Bombs along the border, effectively ending human habitation of the region for the next era of humanity.

Conclusions

You should keep your eyes on the wind patterns and weather of the region of Zaporizhzhia, Dear Reader. I really can’t say who is planning an attack, or if it will even happen, but these things will decide the outcome for whoever takes that choice.

1,000 Tsar Bombs, Dear Reader.

Just remember that.

If anyone does it, they have decided to unleash 1,000 Tsar Bombs on a nation. Equivalent of a full-scale nuclear strike - sent by wind rather than missile. They will have used nature as their missiles instead.